According to an analysis by Cushman & Wakefield Thailand, the Thai condominium market is expected to see a significant drop in new supply. Official forecasts indicate that new condo launches will fall to approximately 15,000 to 17,000 units in 2026 — the lowest level of new supply in 20 years. For context, full-year 2025 launches already totalled 16,408 units and were described as a significant decline, with the fourth quarter alone down 56% quarter-on-quarter.
Q1 2026 Condo Launches: Why 7,170 Units Overstates the Market
Data for the first quarter of 2026 shows an unusual spike in launches. The market recorded 7,170 new units, a sharp increase compared to the previous quarter. To put this in perspective, the Bangkok market launched more than 20,000 units per quarter in past peak periods, so even this elevated Q1 figure remains far below historical norms.
This figure is heavily influenced by a single major project. Excluding the BTS Group’s launch of approximately 4,000 units, total new launches in Q1 2026 would have been fewer than 3,000 units — a core figure that better reflects the underlying trend of reduced developer activity. For readers, the headline launch number is not representative of broad market health.
The project driving the Q1 figure is the BTS Group’s Baan Chao Thai initiative — specifically its D:CODE Sri Nakarin development of up to 4,150 units, located around 300 metres from the Yellow Line Si Iam station. It is positioned well below typical market pricing, at an average of roughly THB 60,000 per square metre, with units ranging from THB 1.89 million to THB 3.78 million across 30–60 sqm layouts. The development uses a Government Housing Bank–backed, zero-down-payment model aimed at Gen Y and low-to-middle-income buyers, and drew more than 6,000 pre-registrations before its gallery opened.
Separate official data from CBRE Thailand corroborates the slowdown: its Q1 2026 Bangkok market report recorded only 12 new project launches across the city. CBRE attributed the caution to ongoing geopolitical conflicts, a weak local economy, and elevated oil prices. There is also an important within-quarter nuance — sales were strong during the first two months of Q1 2026, but demand slowed in March following the late-February geopolitical escalation, meaning the data captured a pre-shock demand spike followed by an abrupt slowdown.
New Condo Pricing: Mid-Market and Outlying Areas in Focus
The new supply is concentrated in mid-market and outlying areas. Official sources confirm that many new projects launched in Q1 2026 were priced below THB 80,000 per square metre.
Foreign Buyers in the Thai Condo Market
According to industry estimates cited in media reports, foreign buyers are understood to account for approximately 18–20% of condominium purchases. This data is based on market analysis and should be treated as an estimate rather than a confirmed official figure.
What This Means for Buyers:
- Confirmed:
- New supply is dropping to multi-decade lows.
- Launches in Q1 2026 were dominated by a single large project.
- New projects are being priced at affordable levels (below THB 80,000/sqm).
- Cautious Note (Foreign Buyer Share):
- The 18–20% figure is an industry estimate, not a confirmed official figure.
- Buyers should verify the current proportion with official government data or a licensed real estate advisor.
Zagdim Analysis
- Developer behaviour appears highly selective, concentrating activity around a small number of anchor projects rather than broad-based launches.
- Pricing strategy is shifting toward sub-THB-80,000/sqm units in mid-market and outlying areas, pointing to more suburban options for buyers but limited new luxury supply in central districts.
- Supply conditions appear to be tightening on current trends, which may shift the dynamics for both new and resale units. No fixed price guarantees or automatic rental returns should be inferred from these supply trends.
For anyone weighing an off-plan purchase in Thailand, the key takeaway is that headline launch numbers can mask a much quieter underlying market — and that pricing, location, and project timing matter more than the supply figure alone. Understanding where a specific project sits within these trends is the more useful starting point. Have a question you want to talk through? We can help you clarify your situation and next steps — start here.
This article is based on officially verified industry sources current as of June 2, 2026. Market conditions and forecasts change frequently. Always confirm your specific situation with a licensed real estate professional or qualified advisor before making a purchase decision.
