KPMG Australia forecasts national house prices to fall 1.1% in 2026 while unit prices rise 2.2%. The firm published the revised outlook on 4 August after weakening its earlier expectations for the housing market.
The national figures mask different city forecasts. KPMG expects house prices to fall 4.4% in Sydney and 5.0% in Melbourne during 2026, while its table keeps Brisbane, Adelaide, Perth and Darwin in positive territory.
KPMG attributes the revision to three interest-rate increases, affordability pressure, investor-tax changes and weaker sentiment.
For 2027, KPMG forecasts national house prices to rise 3.4% and unit prices to rise 3.7%, describing the projected path as V-shaped — placing the 2026 split inside a two-year forecast path.
The heart of the outlook is divergence: houses versus units, and city by city. All figures are KPMG forecasts, not recorded price outcomes.
References
KPMG Australia — Rising rates and growing uncertainty continues to cool housing market
