Property advisory firm Charter Keck Cramer says the Albanese Government’s May Budget tax changes — covering negative gearing, capital gains tax treatment, and lending restrictions to self-managed super funds (SMSFs) — risk reducing new apartment supply and pushing rents and prices higher, the opposite of the policy’s stated aim. Its latest State of the Market report, covering the first half of 2026, says the Build-to-Sell apartment sector already faces “ongoing and increasing headwinds” from high construction costs and weak project economics, and argues the government “has failed to make the correct evidence-based decisions with a true understanding of the impact on the new housing market.”
The report’s central objection: the government’s assumption that investors leaving established homes will simply move “one for one” into new-build apartments. Charter Keck Cramer says investors will instead “fully reconsider all investment decisions including moving into other asset classes,” and that new apartments could become harder to sell once their tax advantages disappear on resale — a disadvantage the market may start pricing in from the outset.
The report reserves its strongest criticism for the SMSF lending changes, calling them “an error of judgment made on incomplete data.” Based on discussions with property valuers, the firm estimates SMSF investors account for roughly 20–30% of off-the-plan apartment buyers in Melbourne and Brisbane — a buyer pool it says has “now effectively disappeared,” threatening developers’ ability to hit the presale thresholds needed to secure construction finance. Some Brisbane projects are already seeking alternative sales channels. Charter Keck Cramer is urging the government to exclude new apartments from the proposed SMSF lending restrictions.
References
Australian Property Update — Federal tax changes risk worsening apartment shortage
