Global real estate firm CBRE expects Australian apartment capital values to be 20% higher by the end of the decade, in a forecast that runs counter to near-term predictions of further home price falls and higher interest rates. In a recent briefing note, CBRE’s Head of Research for the Pacific, Sameer Chopra, and its Head of Australian Residential Research, Craig Godber, say the increase will be driven by a large cohort of recent migrants moving into home ownership just as new apartment supply drops sharply.
The forecast centers on migrants who arrived during Australia’s post-pandemic migration surge. CBRE estimates net overseas migration ran roughly 720,000 above 2010-2019 levels between 2022 and 2025, concentrated in 2022 and 2023. Citing a real estate industry “rule of thumb” that new migrants typically buy their first home in Australia around seven years after arrival — often once they feel settled or obtain citizenship — Chopra and Godber project this “Class of 2022-25” could add roughly 200,000 home buyers to the market between 2028 and 2030. For context, they note Australia typically sees 500,000-550,000 home sales a year, of which about 300,000 are owner-occupiers, making an incremental 200,000 buyers a significant demand shock.
That wave of buyers is expected to arrive just as new apartment supply tightens. CBRE forecasts apartment completions will average just 53,500 a year over 2028-30, 33% below the 10-year historical average and 14% lower than CBRE’s own forecast a year earlier. The researchers attribute the supply pullback to higher construction costs, higher interest rates, negative gearing settings and funding difficulties among developers and lenders, adding that private investors are currently scarce in the apartment market. CBRE’s own published research separately shows median apartment prices are forecast to grow 20% between 2026 and 2030, with the strongest growth expected in 2028 and 2029, alongside median rent growth of 26% between 2026 and 2031 across 53 capital-city precincts.
Chopra and Godber frame their price outlook as conditional rather than fixed. “Our current forecast is for residential capital values to be 20% higher at the end of the decade,” they say, but add that “what could make us more bullish or more bearish on residential values is the outcome for jobs growth over the next three to five years.” For migrants and foreign buyers weighing an Australian apartment purchase, the forecast suggests the 2028-2030 window is when CBRE expects competition from this migrant cohort — and the supply squeeze — to intensify, though the researchers stress employment conditions will determine how the forecast actually plays out.
References
Australian Property Update – Apartment prices to rise 20% as migrant buyers meet shrinking supply / CBRE Australia – Apartment Outlook: Demand, Supply, Vacancy, Rents and Prices, 2H 2026 Edition
