Statistics New Zealand released its June quarter labour market data on August 5: the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate rose from 5.4% to 5.6%, the highest since March 2014. A total of 166,500 people were unemployed across April, May and June (not seasonally adjusted). Abby Johnston, Stats NZ’s labour market spokesperson, said around 8,000 more people were experiencing long-term unemployment than a year earlier, with young people continuing to struggle to find work.
The figure came in above every major forecast: the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) had projected 5.4%, BNZ and Westpac picked 5.4%, ANZ and ASB anticipated 5.5%, and Kiwibank projected 5.3%. The March quarter rate was also revised up from 5.3% to 5.4%, reflecting seasonal-adjustment updates and more recent migration estimates.
Labour market data is one of the core inputs to RBNZ rate decisions, and with unemployment overshooting projections, attention turns to what it means for the rate path. interest.co.nz notes the result was “well above the projections made by the Reserve Bank and by bank economists”; the institutions cited have not yet published updated forecasts in the sources covered here.
