早在2021年年尾，英國央行率先宣佈加息，更隨後2次進一步增加基準利率。面對加息週期，英國物業會受到什麼影響?而倫敦Zone1作為英國和歐洲的金融核心，一直是尋求租金回報或資本增值的投資者的首選。然而，隨著英國利率的不斷加息，資本市場也開始了調整。今次我們訪問英國Du Val Group International創辦人兼CEO Ashley Osborne MRICS分享他作為業界人士對英國樓後市的睇法?
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Ashley Osborne MRICS
CEO & Co-Founder
Du Val Group International
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Q：你認為英國加息對倫敦Zone1樓市有何影響？
Ashley Osborne MRICS
英格蘭銀行 (BoE) 將基準利率從 2 月份的 0.25% 上調至 0.5%，以應對通脹上升*。通貨膨脹目前以每年 5.5% 的速度上升。到 4 月可能會達到 7%。隨著全球經濟在新冠疫情緩和後、全球員工短缺和能源成本上漲後重新上線，但全球供應鏈問題導致通脹快速增長。在中短期內，能源成本可能會因俄羅斯入侵烏克蘭而進一步增加。為應對高通脹且不斷增長的通脹，英國央行可能會加快基準利率的上調。全球市場預計到年底基準利率將在 2% 至 2.3% 之間。
與此同時，英格蘭的市場一直未能滿足其新的住房需求。 2021年，僅建造了 216,000 套新房，而預期需求在 300,000 至 340,000 套之間。在倫敦市中心（Zone1），新開工量從 2015 年的 15,706 座下降到 2020 年的 4,860 座，該區的情況最為嚴重。
嚴重的住房短缺、更高的利率和高通脹對Zone1房地產市場影響如風暴般猛烈。倫敦Zone1仍然是世界上最好的通脹對沖工具之一，被認為是全球藍籌資產。投資者和自住業主都將尋求通脹開始前購入房地產並鎖定按揭利率，因為現時利率仍接近歷史低點。我預計整個英格蘭的房地產價格將大幅上漲，尤其是倫敦Zone1。
*)註：專家受訪時仍未公布第三次加息，當時英國基準利率為0.5厘
Q：除了利率，還建議投資者注意哪些其他因素？
Ashley Osborne MRICS
除利率外，投資者還應注意以下將對英國房地產市場產生深遠影響的問題。
首先是通貨膨脹將對建築成本產生重大影響。為了維持利潤率，開發商將盡可能地將這些成本轉嫁給買家。意味著無論需求如何，新建房屋的價格都會上漲，將會推高二手房地產市場的樓價。此外，房地產被認為是對沖通脹的最佳工具之一，面對大量投資者需求，對房地產價格構成進一步的上升壓力。
而住房供應量將繼續是房屋市場的另一主要問題。實際上，隨著開發商爭奪材料和勞動力以滿足不斷增長的需求，全球供應鏈難以恢復，供應可能會變得更糟而不是更好。
同時，投資者需要了解最新最低能源效益標準 (MEES)。到 2025 年，房東將要求持有物業的 EPC 評級至少為 C，方可出租其物業。而到2030 年，EPC 評級要求提升為B。投資者在考慮房產時需要了解這些新要求，因為改造房產使其符合規範的成本將會很高。
Q：未來會發生什麼？你認為人口流動會回到市中心嗎？
Ashley Osborne MRICS
簡而言之，是的。我認為在英國搬出城市的人數被誇大了。英國的主要基礎設施和便利設施位於其大城市。大多數人都希望住在靠近這些基礎設施的地方，未來的交通成本將是居住者不想搬出市中心的一個關鍵因素。在新冠大流行之後，市民的工作方式將會改變，而在家工作將繼續存在。
然而，我並不一定認為等同於居住者想要搬家。僅僅意味著他們希望在工作中獲得更大的靈活性。我認為租戶和居民對他們家的需求可能會改變。我相信可以對於房間以外的工作空間、高速互聯網網絡以及更廣闊的室內空間會是新要求，無論這些功能是出現在他們自己的私有空間內還是在大廈會所都一樣。
Q：你對 2022 年租賃權改革（地租）法案的有何看法？
Ashley Osborne MRICS
《2022 年租賃權改革（地租）法》於 2022 年 2 月 8 日由議會通過，並將於 2022 年 8 月 8 日生效。該法案一旦生效，將對房東可以向承租人收取地租構成限制。 此外，一旦初始租貸權到期，新法案為承租人提供了更大的確定性，因為將會允許他們免費延長租約。
這是一個好消息，為投資者和自住業主提供了更多確定性。 然而，現實情況是，大多數開發商已經考慮到這些變化發生的可能性，並且大多數新的租賃物業都是在考慮這些變化的情況下提供的。
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Original (英文原文）
Q1 : What do you think UK’s interest rate raising will affect the London property market in Zone 1？
The Bank of England (BoE) raised the base rate to 0.5% from 0.25% in February to combat rising inflation. Inflation is currently rising at 5.5% p.a. and will likely hit 7% by April. Rapid growth in inflation has been caused by global supply chain issues as global economies come back online following covid lockdowns, global staff shortages, and rising energy costs. In the short to medium term, it is likely energy costs will increase further in response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine. In response to high and growing inflation, the BoE is likely to accelerate rises in the base rate. Global markets expect the base rate to land between 2 – 2.3% by the end of the year.
At the same time, the market in England has consistently failed to meet its new housing requirements. In 2021, just 216,000 new homes were built versus anticipated demand of between 300,000 – 340,000. In Inner London (and Zone 1) the situation is most severe in the country where new construction starts have declined from 15,706 in 2015 to just 4,860 in 2020.
A severe housing shortage, higher interest rates and high inflation will create the perfect storm in the Zone 1 property market. London Zone 1 still represents one of the world’s best hedges against inflation and is considered a global blue-chip asset. Both investors and owner-occupiers will seek to buy property in London before inflation starts to bite and lock-in interest rates whilst they remain close to all-time lows. I anticipate significant increases in property prices across England, particularly London Zone 1.
Q2: Apart from the interest rate, what other element would you suggest the investors be aware of?
Other than interest rates, investors should be aware of the following issues, which will profoundly impact the UK property market.
Inflation will have a significant impact on construction costs. To maintain their profit margins, developers will seek to pass as much of these costs on to buyers. This will mean that new-build prices will increase, regardless of demand, which will push up the cost of housing in the secondary property market. In addition, real estate is considered to be one of the best hedges against inflation which will create significant investor demand putting further pressure on property prices.
Housing supply will continue to be a primary issue in the housing market. In reality, supply is likely to get worse rather than better as global supply chains struggle to come back online as developers compete for materials and labour to meet increasing demand.
Investors need to be aware of new Minimum Energy Efficiency Standards (MEES). By 2025 landlords will require their properties to have an EPC rating of at least C to rent out their property. By 2030 the requirement will be to have an EPC rating of B. Investors need to be aware of these new requirements when considering properties, as the cost of retrofitting a property to make it meet code will be costly.
Q3: What will happen in the coming future? Do you think people will return to the city centre?
In short, yes. I believe the number of people moving out of cities in the UK is overstated. The UK’s major infrastructure and amenities are located in its large cities. Most people want to live close to this infrastructure, the future cost of transport will be a key factor in people not wanting to move out of city centres. No doubt post the covid pandemic the way people work will change, and working from home is here to stay. However, I do not necessarily believe this automatically means people want to move homes; it simply means they want more flexibility in their work. I think what tenants and occupiers want in their homes will likely change. I believe access to outside space, high-speed internet, and space for working from home either within their own space or the building itself.
Q4: What’s your opinion on the final approval of The Leasehold Reform (Ground Rent) Act 2022?
The Leasehold Reform (Ground Rent) Act 2022 was passed by parliament on 8 February 2022 and will come into effect on 8 August 2022. Once in effect the Act will set limits on ground rents that landlords can charge on leaseholders once in effect. In addition, it gives far more certainty for those leaseholders once the initial tenancy expires because it will allow them to extend the leasehold for free (a peppercorn).
This is positive news and gives much more certainty to investors and owner-occupiers. However, the reality is that most developers have factored in the likelihood of these changes taking place and most new leasehold property is offered with these changes in mind.
