高盛報告指出： 中國房地產市場將出現“L型”復甦
高盛 (Goldman Sachs Group Inc.) 的一份研究報告（China L-shaped. Property sector Recovery ahead without a quick fix ）預計中國房地產市場在未來幾年將出現“L型復甦”，將拖累世界第二大經濟體。
報告指，隨著內地人口需求下降、政策重心轉移等趨勢，加上住房負擔能力減弱，預計行業會出現多年放緩。但報告預計，中國房市只拖累今年 GDP 1%，低於去年的2.2%，主要原因是內地希望降低經濟對房地產行業的依賴。
“We see persistent weaknesses in the property sector, mainly related to lower-tier cities and private developer financing, and believe there appears no quick fix for them. As such, we only assume an “L-shaped” recovery in the property sector in coming years. Based on our estimates, the property weakness will likely be a multi-year growth drag for China, but it could be less painful in 2023 (-1.0pp to headline GDP growth) than in 2022 (-2.2pp).”
根據國家統計局的數字，住宅市場出現疲軟跡象。5 月份房屋銷售的反彈速度，從前兩個月前的 29% 以上放緩至 6.7%。此外，我們可以從資本市場，了解市場反應，香港掛牌內地發展商，富力地產（2018）年至今下跌93%，融創中國（2020）下跌 97%，遠洋集團(2018）下跌 92% （至 2022年6月），此外 Global X MSCI 中國房地產類股ETF, 由2020年1月高位 60.27，到2022年 10月14.55， 跌幅超過 75%，反映資本市場仍存憂慮。
最後，高盛預計, 內地將放寬首次置業及換樓人士的信貸要求、進一步降低抵押貸款利率及首付比例, 並進一步放寬限購令，以支持內房市場，但不會主動推出政策，帶動行業上升週期，認為投資者不要指望，再現2015-2018年的政策改變。
” The ongoing property cycle is different from previous rounds, as policymakers appear very determined not to use the property sector as a short-term stimulus tool, due likely to heightened concerns on falling demographic demand, a shift in policy focus to support strategically important sectors, and weaker housing affordability. We believe the policy priority is to manage the multi-year slowdown rather than to engineer an upcycle, and do not expect a repeat of the 2015-18 cash-backed shantytown renovation program.”
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